An empirical method for predicting exhaust emissions of regulated pollutants from future vehicle technologies

A methodology is presented for estimating emissions of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles complying with future European Union emission standards, which introduces appropriate reductions over the emission factors of existing vehicle technologies. For three-way catalyst gasoline vehicles, future real-world emissions are assumed to decrease by the same ratio as emission standards. Additionally, distinction is made between emissions during the thermally stabilised emission control system operation and emissions during the cold-start phase, where reductions are mainly due to the decreasing light-off time of future catalyst technologies. In case of diesel vehicles, some of the emission standards, such as 1993 CO, did not represent the actual emission level of vehicles at the time. Therefore, reductions brought over the 1993 emission factor are based both on relevant emission standards reductions and on technological considerations. In a second step, the derived emission factors are corrected to account for vehicle age and fuel quality effects. Vehicle age is introduced in the calculation via emission degradation functions of the total vehicle-accumulated mileage. The impact of improved fuels on the emissions of existing and future vehicle technologies is also modelled by applying correction factors depending on fuel specifications. A number of examples are given by applying the methodology on forecast activity data for different European countries to illustrate the expected effects of future vehicle technologies and fuels.