Assessing the uncertainty associated with national greenhouse gas emission inventories: : a case study for Austria

The uncertainty associated with the Austrian Greenhouse Gas emission inventory has been determined for the gases CO2, CH4 and N2O and for the overall greenhouse potential. Expert interviews were conducted to obtain uncertainties in inventory input data. Based on these interviews, error distributions were developed and combined using Monte-Carlo analysis. Results for all sources and gases combined indicate an overall uncertainty between 10.5% and 12% depending on the base year considered. Excluding emissions and the uncertainty associated with forest sinks and natural sources, overall uncertainty decreased by 2% points. The mere ‘random error’, which is considered the level of uncertainty to be achieved with the current methodology (excluding all systematic errors) is 5% points lower. Detailed evaluation shows that much of the overall uncertainty derives from a lack of understanding the processes associated with N2O emissions from soils. Other important contributors to GHG emission uncertainties are CH4 from landfills and forests as CO2 sinks. The uncertainty of the trend has been determined at near 5% points, with solid waste production (landfills) having the strongest contribution. Theoretical considerations do not permit a decrease of the trend uncertainty—even when forest sinks are not considered—below 3% points.