Atmospheric transport modelling in support of CTBT verification—overview and basic concepts

Under the provisions of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global monitoring system comprising different verification technologies is currently being set up. The network will include 80 radionuclide (RN) stations distributed all over the globe that measure treaty-relevant radioactive species. While the seismic subsystem cannot distinguish between chemical and nuclear explosions, RN monitoring would provide the “smoking gun” of a possible treaty violation. Atmospheric transport modelling (ATM) will be an integral part of CTBT verification, since it provides a geo-temporal location capability for the RN technology. In this paper, the basic concept for the future ATM software system to be installed at the International Data Centre is laid out. The system is based on the operational computation of multi-dimensional source–receptor sensitivity fields for all RN samples by means of adjoint tracer transport modelling. While the source–receptor matrix methodology has already been applied in the past, the system that we suggest will be unique and unprecedented, since it is global, real-time and aims at uncovering source scenarios that are compatible with measurements. Furthermore, it has to deal with source dilution ratios that are by orders of magnitude larger than in typical transport model applications. This new verification software will need continuous scientific attention, and may well provide a prototype system for future applications in areas of environmental monitoring, emergency response and verification of other international agreements and treaties.