On the role of nighttime meteorology in modeling dispersion of near surface emissions in urban areas

This paper examines the role of meteorology in linking near surface emissions of particulate matter and associated ambient concentrations in urban areas. The examination is conducted with two models: a steady state model based on urban dispersion models developed earlier, and an unsteady state model that accounts for time varying meteorological and emission inputs. After conducting sensitivity studies with the models, they are applied in Pune, India to (a) check consistency between estimates of surface emissions of particulate matter (with aerodynamic diameters of less than m, referred to as PM10) and observed ambient concentrations and (b) identify the variables that govern air quality. Results from the modeling exercise indicate that (1) nighttime meteorology governs both hourly as well as 24 h averaged concentrations and (2) because the wind speeds in urban areas are typically low, concentration estimates from the steady state model differ substantially from those of the unsteady state model during the nighttime hours both in magnitude and in timing of the peaks; however, the difference between the 24 h averaged concentrations from the two models is less than 5% for the cases considered here. Because our understanding of nighttime meteorology in urban areas is limited, there is a need for experimental programs to relate the diurnal variation of concentrations with associated meteorology, especially during the night.