Managing the performance risk of conventional waterworks in compliance with the natural organic matter regulation

In order to understand the dual impact of both deteriorating water resources and stringent water quality regulations on the performance of conventional waterworks on a nationwide level, a methodology of a risk-based screening analysis is developed and further applied to evaluate the natural organic matter (NOM) regulation in the new standards for drinking water quality. Due to the large number of drinking water sources and conventional waterworks, as well as the lack of detailed field observations in China, such an analysis is wholly based on a validated conceptual model. The performance risk of conventional waterworks in compliance with the new regulation is estimated within the framework of risk assessment through Monte Carlo simulation to account for the uncertainties associated with model parameters, source water quality and operation conditions across different waterworks. A screening analysis is simultaneously performed using a task-based Hornberger–Spear–Young algorithm to identify the critical operation parameters that determine the performance risk, based on which potential strategies to manage the performance risk are proposed and evaluated. The effects of the model parameter uncertainties on the simulation results are also discussed.