Performance, reliability and uncertainty of total phosphorus models for lakes—I. Deterministic analyses

Water quality problems in many lakes are closely related to the concentration of total phosphorus. Several total phosphorus models have been developed over the years that may be suitable to study these problems. However, some models may be more appropriate than others depending on the management objectives of the model and the mechanisms that affect the dynamics of various forms of phosphorus in the lake. These mechanisms include stratification, partitioning of total phosphorus into soluble and particulate forms, sediment interactions, and algal uptake and recycle. This paper analyzes the mechanisms, performance, and reliability of several total phosphorus models for lakes. Recommendations are made concerning the most appropriate model for Shagawa Lake, Minnesota. Part II of this paper extends these procedures to include uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo stochastic techniques.