Effects of Immigration on Some Stochastic Logistic Models: A Cumulant Truncation Analysis

This paper uses a new cumulant truncation methodology to investigate the stochastic power law logistic model with immigration, and illustrates the model with parameter values used to describe the growth of muskrat populations in the Netherlands. This model has a stable equilibrium distribution. The incorporation of immigration into the model, therefore, simplifies the qualitative nature of the stochastic solution. The (unconditional) cumulant functions for the transient and the equilibrium population size distributions are obtained, from which the distributions are shown to be near-normal at all times for the parameter values of interest. Approximating cumulant functions, which are relatively easy to find in practice, are derived and shown to be quite accurate, except for the case of massive immigration. As the level of immigration increases, the mean value rises more rapidly initially, as expected; however, the variance and the skewness of both the transient and the equilibrium distributions are reduced.