Host Spatial Heterogeneity and the Spread of Vector-Borne Infection

We analyze how spatial heterogeneity in host density affects the advance of vector-borne disease. Infection requires vector infestation. The vector spreads only between hosts occupying the same neighborhood, and the number of hosts varies randomly among neighborhoods. Simulation of a spatially detailed model shows that increasing heterogeneity in host abundance reduces pathogen prevalence. Clumping of hosts can limit the advance of the vector, which inhibits the spread of infection indirectly. Clumping can also increase the chance that the pathogen and vector become physically separated during the initial phase of the epidemic process. The latter limitation on the pathogenʹs spread, in our simulations, is restricted to small interaction neighborhoods. A mean-field model, which does not maintain spatial correlations between sites, approximates simulation results when hosts are arrayed uniformly, but overestimates infection prevalence when hosts are aggregated. A pair approximation, which includes some of the simulation modelʹs spatial correlations, better describes the vector infestation frequencies across host spatial dispersions.