Experts’ Agreement on the Relative Effectiveness of 29 Smoking Reduction Strategies

Background.Smoking is associated with a large burden of illness in both developed and developing countries. Effective prevention of the uptake of smoking and achieving high rates of smoking cessation are essential to significantly reducing this problem. Therefore, researchers have sought to identify effective smoking reduction strategies which might be implemented in the community. Despite this wealth of research, making choices from among the available strategies with demonstrated effectiveness remains a difficult task.Methods.The study aimed to explore the level of agreement among experts on the perceived relative effectiveness and cost effectiveness of 29 smoking reduction strategies in a given environment. Experts were selected at random from tobacco control organizations in Australia. Fifty experts completed a mailed questionnaire.Results.It was found that there was little agreement among the experts regarding the perceived relative effectiveness and cost effectiveness of 29 smoking reduction strategies.Conclusions.It was concluded that the results suggest that experts may not be able to provide clear and consistent direction to health organizations on how best to reduce smoking rates. This is a concern given the current need for an effective, well-targeted worldwide attack on tobacco-related mortality and morbidity.