Does adolescent perception of difficulty in getting cigarettes deter experimentation?

Background. Considerable controversy surrounds tobacco control emphasis on youth-access-to-tobacco laws, as there is limited evidence that such enforcement reduces youth smoking. In California, access-law enforcement increased substantially in 1996 compared to earlier in the decade. Methods. Two longitudinal cohorts of adolescent never smokers from the large, population-based California Tobacco Surveys of 1993 and 1996 were followed-up 3 years later (1993–1996 [n = 1,764] and 1996–1999 [n = 2,119]). We examined transition to any smoking by follow-up with adolescent perception that cigarettes are easy or hard to get, during periods with less and more access law enforcement. Results. Transition to any smoking by follow-up among 12- to 15-year-old never smokers was identical in the 1993–1996 cohort, regardless of whether they perceived cigarettes as hard or easy to get (about 38%), but was lower in the 1996–1999 cohort for those who perceived that cigarettes were hard (25.9%) vs. easy (36.1%) to get. This differential effect was confirmed in multivariate analyses that adjusted for demographics, cohort, and other known predictors of adolescent smoking. Conclusions. Increased enforcement of access laws may help protect young adolescents from experimenting with cigarettes by strengthening societal anti-tobacco norms. Such enforcement appears warranted as part of a comprehensive tobacco control program.