Abstract :
Power forecasting is an important factor for planning the operations of photovoltaic (PV) system. This paper presents an advanced
statistical method for solar power forecasting based on artificial intelligence techniques. The method requires as input past power measurements
and meteorological forecasts of solar irradiance, relative humidity and temperature at the site of the photovoltaic power system.
A self-organized map (SOM) is trained to classify the local weather type of 24 h ahead provided by the online meteorological
services. A unique feature of the method is that following a preliminary weather type classification, the neural networks can be well
trained to improve the forecast accuracy. The proposed method is suitable for operational planning of transmission system operator,
i.e. forecasting horizon of 24 h ahead and for PV power system operators trading in electricity markets. Application of the forecasting
method on the power production of an actual PV power system shows the validity of the method.
2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
