Abstract :
In this article, I analyze the role of Donald J. Urquhart in
the creation of modern library and information science.
Urquhart was one of the chief architects of information
science in Britain and founder of the National Lending Library
for Science and Technology (NLL), which evolved
into the present-day British Library Document Supply
Centre (BLDSC). In particular, I focus on the part played
by Urquhart in the development of that branch of information
science termed bibliometrics, the application of
mathematical and statistical techniques to information
phenomena, pursuing both historical and practical aims.
The article is intended not only to trace the history of the
probability distributions applicable to library use and
other facets of human knowledge but also to demonstrate
how these distributions can be used in the evaluation
and management of scientific journal collections.
For these purposes, the paper is divided into three parts
of equal importance. The first part is statistical and establishes
the theoretical framework, within which
Urquhart’s work is considered. It traces the historical development
of the applicable probability distributions,
discussing their origins on the European continent and
how Continental principles became incorporated in the
biometric statistics that arose in Britain as a result of the
Darwinian revolution. This part analyzes the binomial
and Poisson processes, laying out the reasons why the
Poisson process is more suitable for modeling information
phenomena. In doing so, it describes key distributions
arising from these processes as well as the various
tests for these distributions, citing the literature that
shows how to conduct these tests. Throughout the discussion,
the relationship of these distributions to library
use and the laws of information science is emphasized.
The second part of the article analyzes the pioneering
role of Urquhart as a conduit for the entry of these probability
distributions into librarianship, converting it into
library and information science. He was the first librarian
to apply probability to library use, utilizing it not only to
establish and manage the scientific journal collections
of the NLL but also to evolve his Law of Supralibrary Use.
Urquhart’s work is portrayed within the context of a general
trend to adopt probabilistic methods for analytical
purposes, and a major premise of this article is that his
law and the probabilistic breakthrough, on which it was
based, were most likely in Britain, which was one of the
few countries not only to develop but also maintain the
necessary scientific preconditions. The third—and concluding
section—discusses how Urquhart’s Law forces
a probabilistic reconceptualization of the functioning of
the scientific journal system as well as the law’s practical
implications for journal sales, collection evaluation and
management, resource sharing, and the transition from
the paper to the electronic format.
