Reevaluatingthemodernizationhypothesis

We revisitandcriticallyreevaluatethewidelyacceptedmodernizationhypothesis which claimsthatpercapitaincomecausesthecreationandtheconsolidationof democracy.Existingstudiesfindsupportforthishypothesisbecausetheyfailtocontrol for thepresenceofomittedvariables.Controllingforthesefactorseitherbyincluding countryfixedeffectsinalinearmodelorbyincludingparameterizedrandomeffectsina nonlineardoublehazardmodelremovesthecorrelationbetweenincomeandthe likelihoodoftransitionstoandfromdemocraticregimes.Inaddition,theestimated fixed effectsfromthelinearmodelarerelatedtohistoricalfactorsthataffectboththe level ofincomepercapitaandthelikelihoodofdemocracyinacountry.Thisevidenceis consistentwiththeideathateventsduringcriticalhistoricaljuncturescanleadto divergentpolitical–economicdevelopmentpaths,someleadingtoprosperityand democracy,otherstorelativepovertyandnon-democracy.