A seasonal analysis of Malaysian tourist arrivals to Australia Original Research Article

Strong economic growth and rapidly rising incomes in Malaysia have led to a surge in Malaysian tourist arrivals to Australia in the 1990s, prior to the currency crisis in mid-1997. The purpose of the paper is to use autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to explain the non-stationary seasonally unadjusted quarterly tourist arrivals from Malaysia to Australia from 1975(1) to 1996(4). As the tourist arrivals series display strong seasonal patterns, deterministic and stochastic seasonality are examined as possible explanations for variations in the international tourist arrivals series. The Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (HEGY) S. Hylleberg, R.F. Engle, C.W.J. Granges, B.S. Yoo, Seasonal integration and cointegration, J. Econometrics 99 (1990) 215–238 test for seasonal unit roots is used to examine stochastic seasonality in the various series associated with Malaysian tourist arrivals to Australia.