Modelling and simulation in snow science Original Research Article

Modelling of complex systems or complex behaviour is obviously not trivial. Natural processes with which we deal in snow mechanics and avalanche dynamics possess many features which complicate the description of both the whole system under concern as well as single events. The fact that worldwide more then hundred avalanche models are used to calculate the run-out can be interpreted in two ways: first, it seems to be difficult to find a best fit modelling concept to describe the process and second, the validation process seems to be restricted because of the lack of observations with sufficient quality. But modelling and simulation of real world phenomena with the aim to support quantitative risk analysis can only deliver satisfying reliability, if the models depict reality with all relevant influence parameters and subsystems.