The Artic-sea-ice cover: Problem of forecasting

The ice-research station “North Pole 32” (NP 32) was established on the ice pack in the Arctic Ocean in 2003 and drifted up to February 2004, when a “global” perturbation in the sea-ice-cover caused the intensive ice fragmentation around the actual position of the NP 32. As a result, the station ceased its activity and was abandoned in March 2004. The statistical characterization of the sea-ice cover fragmentation and the drift dynamics during the final weeks of the work of the NP 32 are under consideration in this communication. The work is an attempt to reveal some features in the prehistory of this large-scale event which could serve for forecasting the substantial perturbations in the sea-ice cover. The most prominent feature that indicated the approach of the sea-ice fragmentation over the area of 105 km2 was the break of the correlated motion of ice-fields observed 2 days before the “catastrophic” event.