The probability of containment failure by direct containment heating in Zion Original Research Article

This paper is the first step in the resolution of the direct containment heating (DCH) issue for the Zion nuclear power plant using the risk oriented accident analysis methodology (ROAAM). This paper includes the definition of a probabilistic framework that decomposes the DCH problem into three probability density functions that reflect the most uncertain initial conditions (UO2 mass, zirconium oxidation fraction, and steel mass). Uncertainties in the initial conditions are significant, but our quantification approach is based on establishing reasonable bounds that are not unnecessarily conservative. To this end, we also make use of the ROAAM ideas of enveloping scenarios and ‘splintering’. Two causal relations (CRs) are used in this framework: CR1 is a model that calculates the peak pressure in the containment as a function of the initial conditions, and CR2 is a model that returns the frequency of containment failure as a function of pressure within the containment. Uncertainty in CR1 is accounted for by the use of two independently developed phenomenological models, the convection-limited containment heating model and the two-cell equilibrium model, and by probabilistically distributing the key parameter in both, which is the ratio of the melt entrainment time to the system blowdown time constant. The two phenomenological models have been compared with an extensive database including recent integral simulations at two different physical scales (1:10-scale in the Surtsey facility at Sandia National Laboratories and 1:40-scale in the COREXIT facility at Argonne National Laboratory). The loads predicted by these models were significantly lower than those from previous parametric calculations. The containment load distributions do not intersect the containment strength (fragility) curve in any significant way, resulting in containment failure probabilities less than 10−3 for all scenarios considered. Sensitivity analyses did not show any areas of large sensitivity. The feasibility of extrapolating containment loads distributions to most other pressurized water reactors is explored.