Abstract :
A probabilistic model was developed for predicting elastic-plastic fracture response and reliability of circumferentially cracked pipes with finite-length, constant-depth, internal surface cracks subject to remote bending loads. It involves engineering estimation of energy release rate, J-tearing theory for characterizing ductile fracture, and standard methods of structural reliability theory. The underlying J-estimation model is based on the deformation theory of plasticity, a constitutive law characterized by power law model for stress-strain curve, and an equivalence criterion incorporating reduced thickness analogy for simulating system compliance due to the presence of a crack. New analytical equations were developed to predict J-integral and are shown to be fairly accurate when compared with generally more accurate elastic-plastic finite-element results. Using this J-estimation method, fast probability integrators and simulation methods were formulated to determine the probabilistic characteristics of J. The same methods were used later to predict the probability of crack initiation and net-section collapse as a function of the applied load. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the proposed methodology. The results show that probabilistic analysis based on net-section collapse (without any margin) may significantly overpredict the reliability of surface-cracked pipes.
