Probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis for pipe considering dispersion of seismic loading Original Research Article

Studies on probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) have been performed for the quantitative integrity assessment of the pipes, which are used in nuclear power plants. The seismic load is one of the dominant loads for the failure assessment of the pipes. Its probabilistic dispersion, however, was not taken into account in the past PFM analysis. Authors have developed PFM analysis code, which accommodates the dispersion of the seismic load and performed parametric PFM analyses using it. The seismic stress has more effect on the break probability, but not for the leak probability. The earthquake, whose occurrence probability is less than 10−5/year has little effect on the break probability. The break probability is affected by the dispersion of the stress due to earthquake rather than the seismic hazard curve.