Abstract :
Thispaperattemptstodrawquantitativeprospectsofspentnuclearfuel(SNF)managementinJapan,withemphasisonuncertaintyofstorageneedsforSNFuptotheyear2050.Inamediumtermuptotheyears2020–2030,thestorageneedforSNFcanbeprojectedwithrelativelyhighaccuracyasitsteadilyincreasesuptothelevelof5000tonnesofuranium(tU),whichrequirestimelydeploymentofstoragefacilitiesaccordingly.Inalongertermupto2050,anumberofaspectsmaygiveinfluencesontheSNFmanagementstrategy,whichareanalyzedindifferentsetsofscenarioassumptions.TheresultsofquantitativesimulationrunsshowedthatthestorageneedforSNFwillincreaseuptothelevelof10,000tonnesofheavymetals(tHM)intheBaseCase,whileitwouldfurthergrowto20,000–25,000tHMintheRiskManagementCases.CarefulattentionsshouldbegiventothepointthatnotjustquantitybutcharacteristicsofSNFtobestoredwilldiffersignificantlyamongthesimulationcases,suchasfromlowertohigherburnup,uraniumandMOX(mixedoxide)fuels.TheresultsimplyJapanʹsSNFmanagementmayrequireelaboratestrategies,whichconsistsofeffectiveandtimelymeasuresintothefuture.
