Risk models for analyzing pilot-error at US airlines: a comparative safety study

Pilot-error is the major cause of accidents in airline operations. This paper proposes two risk models for analyzing pilot-error at US airlines. The focus is on whether airline-specific factors (the name of the airlines) are useful in predicting pilot-error. This is the first study that reliably models pilot-error accident and incident rates on an airline-by-airline basis. The results indicate that airline-specific factors generally were not useful predictors of pilot-error. Moreover, any predicted influence of an individual airline was substantially less than for the pilot-specific factors of age and experience. Thus, the paper illustrates the difficulty of trying to compare airlines on the basis of safety. By analyzing factors associated with pilot-error, policy-makers can more effectively manage and reduce the risk of airline accidents and incidents.