Grid-connected PV buildings: analysis of future scenarios with an example of Southern Spain

The study presented in this paper is part of a project where several companies, utilities and institutions have been working together to evaluate the limits and competitiveness of PV energy in Spain. One of the tasks carried out in this project has been dedicated to forecast possible future scenarios of grid-connected photovoltaic buildings in Spain, considering technological, economic, social and environmental aspects. To perform the study, a methodology based in PV-scenarios has been developed. This methodology allows the researcher to establish future scenarios defined by a set of parameters that will determine the overall progress in grid-connected BIPV (building integrated photovoltaics). In order to facilitate the analysis, the ‘‘ScenariosPV’’ software tool has been developed. This program has proved very useful to deal with PV parameters management, future scenarios analysis and detailed comparison. This methodology has been applied to estimate future PV-scenarios in Southern Spain. In an advanced scenario for the year 2020, the total grid-connected BIPV installed surface could reach 2,480,000m2, supplying as much as 1,872TJ per year, 10% of the electricity peak demand in the summertime and providing up to 25,000 jobs. 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.