Reliability-based evaluation of load factors using unzipping and Bayesian methods

In this study, various sources of uncertainty in demand and capacity, and their direct and indirect dependencies according to their signicant function in Performance Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE), were incorporated proposing a practically new simple procedure. This procedure distinguishes and evaluates the collapse probability of elementary mechanisms, as well as computes their dependencies, utilizing commonly used deterministic computer software through a full probabilistic methodology using -unzipping and Bayesian methods. This procedure has been benchmarked for a typical 2D reinforced concrete moment frame, and the reliability index of the structure for the most probable collapse mechanism was obtained within a reliability-based framework. Moreover, the coecients of dead, live and earthquake loads for a ACI load combination were reevaluated utilizing -unzipping and Bayesian methods through the proposed procedure, and were compared with the codeʹs coecients. Good compatibility between obtained coecients and those of the code ones was perceived, and the probability of collapse, which was implicitly considered in the code, was revealed. It has been concluded that the coecients extracted from the Bayesian method are closer to those of the code compared to those from the -unzipping method. However, as it requires less primary computational eort and due to slight dierences between the results, -unzipping is usually more preferred by evaluators.