Author/Authors :
Teymuri، GhulamHeidar نويسنده M.Sc. Student of Occupational Health, Department of Occupational Health , , Sadeghian، Marzieh نويسنده M.Sc of Occupational health Department of Occupational health , , Kangavari، Mehdi نويسنده M.Sc. Student of Occupational Health, Department of Occupational Health , , Asghari، Mehdi نويسنده Ph.D. Student of Occupational Health, Department of Occupational Health , , Madrese، Elham نويسنده M.Sc. of Biostatistics, Department of Occupational Health , , Abbasinia، Marzieh نويسنده M.Sc. Student of Occupational Health, Department of Occupational health , , Ahmadnezhad، Iman نويسنده Iranian Petroleum Industry Health Research Institute (IPI HRI) , , Gholizadeh، Yavar نويسنده B.Sc. of Occupational Health, Department of Occupational health ,
Abstract :
Introduction: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually,
more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that
approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being
people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran
and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model.
Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic
accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency
Section. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified
time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012.
Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a
standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of
39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for
different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September.
Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted
based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal
trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459
accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months.
Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was
different for different seasons of the year.
