Short time-scale wind forced variability in the Río de la Plata Estuary and its role on ichthyoplankton retention

The Rı´o de la Plata Estuary presents a strong bottom salinity front located over a submerged shoal. Apparently favored by retention processes, it is a spawning ground for several coastal fishes. This estuary is very shallow and essentially wind driven and, moreover, in time scales relevant to biota, estuarine circulation is wind dominated and highly variable. Two intriguing questions are, therefore, how this system can favor retention and what the involved mechanisms are. This paper qualitatively explores mechanisms involved in the estuary where retention is favored applying numerical simulations in which neutral particles e simulating fish eggs and early larvae e are released along the bottom frontal zone and tracked for different wind conditions. Results suggest that retentive features can be a consequence of estuarine response to natural wind variability acting over bathymetric features. For winds from most directions, particles either remain trapped near their launching position or move northeastward to southwestward along the shoal. As alternation of winds that favor along-shoal motion is the dominant feature of wind variability in the region, a retentive scenario results from prevailing wind variability. Additionally, winds that tend to export particles with a poor chance of being restored to the front are neither frequent nor persistent. Results show, therefore, that physical forcing alone might generate a retentive scenario at the inner part of this estuary. The physical retention mechanism is more effective for bottom than for surface launched particles. Wind statistics indicate that the proposed mechanism has different implications for retention along the seasons. Spring is the most favorable season, followed by summer, when particles would have a larger propensity to reach the southern area of the estuary (Samborombo ´n Bay). Fall and winter are increasingly less favorable. All these features are consistent with patterns observed in the region in organisms having different life history traits.