Analyzing impact factors of CO2 emissions using the STIRPAT model

Using the STIRPAT model, this paper analyzes the impact of population, affluence and technology on the total CO2 emissions of countries at different income levels over the period 1975–2000. Our main results show at the global level that economic growth has the greatest impact on CO2 emissions, and the proportion of the population between ages 15 and 64 has the least impact. The proportion of the population between 15 and 64 has a negative impact on the total CO2 emissions of countries at the high income level, but the impact is positive at other income levels. This may illustrate the importance of the “B” in the “I = PABT”; that is to say that different behavior fashions can greatly influence environmental change. For low-income countries, the impact of GDP per capita on total CO2 emissions is very great, and the impact of energy intensity in upper-middle income countries is very great. The impact of these factors on the total CO2 emissions of countries at the high income level is relatively great. Therefore, these empirical results indicate that the impact of population, affluence and technology on CO2 emissions varies at different levels of development. Thus, policy-makers should consider these matters fully when they construct their long-term strategies for CO2 abatement.