Sensitivity analysis and simulation of dispersed oil concentrations in the North Sea with the PROVANN model

The dilution and spreading of dispersed oil in produced water from 95 offshore oil production platforms in the North Sea area have been calculated with the numerical model PROVANN. Amounts of releases are specified on a yearly basis. The simulations include simultaneous calculations for all sources expanding over a time period of one year. The calculations use a three-dimensional and time-varying current field for the North Sea generated by a hydrodynamic model. The PROVANN calculations are verified by testing the modelʹs ability to reproduce analytical solutions of the diffusion–advection equation. The model is further verified by comparing calculated concentrations with field measurements on a regional scale.