Application of a global model to the study of Arctic basin pollution: radionuclides, heavy metals and oil hydrocarbons

The status of pollution of the Arctic basin is studied in ecological terms, and the interactions of the Arctic ecosystem with the global system are estimated. A spatial simulation model for the kinetics of pollutants in the Arctic basin is proposed in which the ecological and spatial distribution of the hydrological parameters is taken into account. The model includes blocks describing the flows of pollutants in the trophic chains, the exchange between the water–ice system and the atmosphere and the interaction of the water ecosystem with the global biosphere–climate system. A global model controls the inputs of the simulation model and makes it possible to compute the dynamics of the distribution of pollutants between the Arctic aquatories, which include the Central basin and the peripheral seas. The model uses both published data and the data of the US/Russian expedition to Siberia accomplished in the summer of 1995. Climatic and anthropogenic processes are described in the form of scenarios. The results of computer experiments are given demonstrating the advantages of the simulation model to forecast and to estimate the dynamics of radionuclides, heavy metals and oil hydrocarbons in the Arctic Seas. The total and local pictures of the spatial distribution of pollutants in the Arctic basin are given as functions of various environmental and anthropogenic parameters. It is concluded that the use of the global biospheric model enables the consideration of the interactions between the Arctic basin environment and adjoining territories. This allows estimates to be made of the consequences of the anthropogenic impact on the Arctic ecosystem.