Modelling the uncertainties in predicting produced water concentrations in the North Sea

A random walk model has been used to compute concentration distributions of dispersed oil in the North Sea resulting from produced water discharges. This formed part of a joint study commissioned by Statoil, OLF and BP International with modelling being undertaken by SINTEF and the Brixham Environmental Laboratory. The model has been set up using predicted tidal currents from the Norwegian Meteorological Office 20-km grid three-dimensional Continental Shelf model for the year 1990. Climatology data from the North Sea have been used to define the variation of the thermocline depth at monthly intervals over the year, and wind data from the East Shetland Basin have been used to compute the vertical mixing rates. Peak concentrations of dispersed oil were predicted to be approximately 3 μg l 1 in the East Shetland Basin, assuming no biodegradation; this value is consistent with the measurements of Stagg et al. (In: Reed, M., Johnsen, S. (Eds), Produced Water 2, Environmental Issues and Mitigation Technologies, Plenum Press, 1996), where the data were collected in the immediate vicinity of the discharges and the effects of degradation would be expected to be negligible. A matrix of model runs was undertaken with different parameter values for the degradation of dispersed oil, horizontal and vertical mixing, and the mixing across the thermocline. These results were used to estimate the sensitivity of the model and the uncertainty in the predicted concentration fields. The results indicate that for the areas of high concentration, a band approximately 150-km wide stretching up the centre of the North Sea, parameterisation of the vertical mixing is most important for predicting the concentration levels. For areas more remote from the discharges and closer to the land masses, the degradation rate of material has most effect on predicted concentrations.