Forecasting dust storms using the CARMA-dust model and MM5 weather data

An operational model for the forecast of dust storms in Northern Africa, the Middle East and Southwest Asia has been developed for the United States Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). The dust forecast model uses the 5th generation Penn State Mesoscale Meteorology Model (MM5) as input to the University of Colorado CARMA dust transport model. AFWA undertook a 60 day evaluation of the effectiveness of the dust model to make short, medium and long- range (72 h) forecasts of dust storms. The study is unique in using satellite and ground observations of dust storms to score the model’s effectiveness using standard meteorological statistics. Each of the main forecast regions was broken down into smaller areas for more detailed analysis. The study found the forecast model is an effective forecast tool with Probability of Detection of dust storm occurrence exceeding 68 percent over Northern Africa, with a 16 percent False Alarm Rate. Southwest Asia forecasts had average Probability of Detection values of 61 percent with False Alarm Rates averaging 10 percent.