A grazing model for simulating the impact of historical land management decisions in sensitive landscapes: Model design and validation

This paper reports the construction and testing of a historical environmental simulation model, Bu´ model (bu´: Icelandic e farm estate or enterprise). The model permits the investigation of historical grazing management under variable environmental conditions in Iceland through the prediction of spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation biomass and utilisation. Input parameters of the model are environmental, livestock and management variables from historical and archaeological sources. Process sub-models were constructed using contemporary Icelandic data. Validation of the model was based on an independent, published grazing experiment and demonstrated that Bu´ model-predicted utilisable biomass values and biomass intake values fall within G1 standard deviation of observed values. Bu´ model provides a validated representation of linkages between environmental and management elements in a historical grazing system. It incorporates key issues of spatial and temporal scale, data quality, model validation and the inherent stochasticity of landscape change over historical periods. In doing so, it enables researchers interested in past landscapes to investigate the flexibility of the historical Icelandic grazing systems within the constraints of climate and vegetation cover, and provides a framework and methodology that can be applied to other historical extensive livestock-based agricultural systems. Access to the model is available at http://www.sbes.stir.ac.uk/research/environmental_modelling/.