Implications of complexity and uncertainty for integrated modelling and impact assessment in river basins

The paper focuses on implications of complexity and uncertainty in climate change impact assessment at the river basin and regional scales. The study was performed using the process-based ecohydrological spatially semi distributed model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model). The model integrates hydrological processes, vegetation/crop growth, erosion and nutrient dynamics in river basins. It was developed from the SWAT and MATSALU models for climate and land use change impact assessment. The study area is the German part of the Elbe River basin (about 100,000 km2). It is representative for semi-humid landscapes in Europe, where water availability during the summer season is the limiting factor for plant growth and crop yield. The validation method followed the multi-scale, multi-site and multi-criteria approach and enabled to reproduce (a) water discharge and nutrient load at the river outlet along with (b) local ecohydrological processes like water table dynamics in subbasins, nutrient fluxes and vegetation growth dynamics at multiple scales and sites. The uncertainty of climate impacts was evaluated using comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation experiments.