Risk assessment modelling of microbiology-related solids separation problems in activated sludge systems

This paper proposes a risk assessment model for settling problems of microbiological origin in activated sludge systems (filamentous bulking, foaming and rising sludge). The aim of the model is not to diagnose microbiology-related solids separation problems with absolute certainty but to quantify in dynamic scenarios whether simulated operational procedures and control strategies lead to favourable conditions for them to arise or not. The rationale behind the model (which integrates the mechanisms of standard activated sludge models with empirical knowledge), its implementation in a fuzzy rule-based system and the details of its operation are illustrated in the different sections of the paper. The performance of the risk assessment model is illustrated by evaluating a number of control strategies facing different shortterm influent conditions as well as long-term variability using the IWA/COST simulation benchmark. The results demonstrate that some control strategies, although performing better regarding operating costs and effluent quality, induce a higher risk for solids separation problems. In view of these results, it is suggested to integrate empirical knowledge into mechanistic models to increase reliability and to allow assessment of potential side-effects when simulating complex processes.