Modelling the dependence of European potato yields on changes in climate and CO2

Results from potato trials at Dundee, UK were used to test a potato growth model. Next, the effects of future changes in climate on tuber yields of rainfed potato (cv. Bintje) in the EU were studied with this tested model. This was done first by modelling the sensitivity of rainfed tuber production to separately changed weather and air composition (CO2, O3) variables. Second, tuber yields of rainfed potato (cv. Bintje) were calculated for both historical climate conditions over the EU and future conditions (year 2050) as based on scenario climate changes. Yields generally increased by 1000–3000 kg/ha for scenario climate change in all regions of the EU. Third, regions in the EU that may become hazardous for potato production in the future, were identified. This showed that the risks of potato production did not significantly increase under scenario climate change.