Urbanization, energy use and greenhouse effects in economic development : Results from a cross-national study of developing countries

This paper seeks an exploratory assessment of the possible global greenhouse consequences of economic development in general and urbanization in particular, especially insofar as they relate to changing patterns of energy use. First, the nature of the relationship between urbanization and increased resource use is elaborated upon, and the impact of the development transition upon levels of energy consumption is empirically analysed in a multiple regression framework, using cross-national variations in urbanization and other development indicators to estimate a fixed-effects model of the determinants of energy usage. The same set of hypothesized determinants is then used to measure their contribution to estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the full set of countries. Next, we focus upon the subsample of developing countries to study the effects of urbanization upon their evolving profiles of energy use, disaggregated by final use sector and fuel type, and estimate the magnitude of the greenhouse effects attributable to each of these component fuel uses. Finally, we present some of the implications of the results for policies toward urbanization and energy strategies for developing countries in the context of global environmental management imperatives