Structural change in Europeʹs gas markets: three scenarios for the development of the European gas market to 2020

Against the background of the European Unionʹs gas Directive, and the emergence of new players and markets in Europeʹs gas sector, this paper explores how company actions could shape the future for the gas industry. Starting with an examination of company strategies this paper develops three scenarios for the future: a “Gradual Transformation” scenario where a single European gas market develops that is essentially oligopolistic in nature; a “Vertical Integration” scenario, where upstream and downstream gas companies merge to form a vertically integrated gas supplier; and a “Pull the Plug” scenario, where the current market structure decomposes into a competitive market. These scenarios are examined in terms of their impact on gas prices, demand and the distribution of gas rent along the supply chain. The paper highlights the fact that the EUʹs gas Directive is not sufficient for the introduction of competition into Europeʹs gas markets, but that company actions will be the key determinant, and they may favour alternative market structures.