Role of nuclear fusion in future energy systems and the environment under future uncertainties

Debates about whether or not to invest heavily in nuclear fusion as a future innovative energy option have been made within the context of energy technology development strategies. This is because the prospects for nuclear fusion are quite uncertain and the investments therefore carry the risk of quite large regrets, even though investment is needed in order to develop the technology. The timeframe by which nuclear fusion could become competitive in the energy market has not been adequately studied, nor has roles of the nuclear fusion in energy systems and the environment. The present study has two objectives. One is to reveal the conditions under which nuclear fusion could be introduced economically (hereafter, we refer to such introductory conditions as breakeven prices) in future energy systems. The other objective is to evaluate the future roles of nuclear fusion in energy systems and in the environment. Here we identify three roles that nuclear fusion will take on when breakeven prices are achieved: (i) a portion of the electricity market in 2100, (ii) reduction of annual global total energy systems cost, and (iii) mitigation of carbon tax (shadow price of carbon) under CO2 constraints. Future uncertainties are key issues in evaluating nuclear fusion. Here we treated the following uncertainties: energy demand scenarios, introduction timeframe for nuclear fusion, capacity projections of nuclear fusion, CO2 target in 2100, capacity utilization ratio of options in energy/environment technologies, and utility discount rates. From our investigations, we conclude that the presently designed nuclear fusion reactors may be ready for economical introduction into energy systems beginning around 2050–2060, and we can confirm that the favorable introduction of the reactors would reduce both the annual energy systems cost and the carbon tax (the shadow price of carbon) under a CO2 concentration constraint.