Transport and energy demand in Mexico: the personal income shock

The paper examines the impact on gasoline demand in Mexico that may arise from the identified surge in number of private vehicles that occurs in developing countries when a certain income per capita is reached, insofar as the countryʹs GDP/capita in the year 2000 is extremely close to the threshold value. “Rapid Automobile Growth” scenarios corresponding to different economic growth rates are compared with a “Business As Usual” one, to exhibit the corresponding surge in gasoline demand to be expected from this personal income shock. Its occurrence requires to reassess not only the current energy supply policies but also the environmental ones.