Estimating coal production peak and trends of coal imports in China

More than 20 countries in the world have already reached a maximum capacity in their coal production (peak coal production) such as Japan, the United Kingdom and Germany. China, home to the third largest coal reserves in the world, is the worldʹs largest coal producer and consumer, making it part of the Big Six. At present, however, Chinaʹs coal production has not yet reached its peak. In this article, logistic curves and gaussian curves are used to predict Chinaʹs coal peak and the results show that it will be between the late 2020s and the early 2030s. Based on the predictions of coal production and consumption, Chinaʹs net coal import could be estimated for coming years. This article also analyzes the impact of Chinaʹs net coal import on the international coal market, especially the Asian market, and on Chinaʹs economic development and energy security.