On the way to 130 g CO2/km—Estimating the future characteristics of the average European passenger car

A new average CO2 emissions limit for passenger cars was introduced in EU in 2009 imposing gradual average CO2 emissions reduction to 130 g/km until 2015. This paper attempts to study possible changes in vehicle characteristics for meeting this limit taking into account the average European passenger car of 2007–2008. For this purpose first the most important factors affecting vehicle fuel consumption over the reference cycle (NEDC) are identified. At a second step, the CO2 benefit from the optimisation of these factors is quantified, through simulations of 6 different passenger cars commonly found in the European fleet. For the simulations Advisor 2002 was employed and validated against published type approval data. The analysis indicated that substantial reductions in vehicle weight, tyre rolling resistance and engine efficiency are necessary to reach even the 2008 target. A 10% reduction in average vehicle weight combined with 10% better aerodynamic characteristics, 20% reduced tyre rolling resistance and a 7.5% increase in average powertrain efficiency can lead to CO2 reductions of approximately 13% (about 138 g/km based on 2007–2008 fleet-wide performance). Complying with the 130 g/km within the next six-year timeframe will be a rather difficult task and additional technical measures appear to be necessary.