“Pivotal politics” in US energy and climate legislation

In the 110th Congress (2007–2008) legislation related to climate change was introduced at a faster pace than in any previous Congress, yet it did not result in a corresponding increase in enacted climate-related laws. A pertinent example of the political infeasibility of climate policy change in the 110th Congress is the case of tax credit extensions for production of renewable energy. While this issue in itself was uncontroversial, the extensions were only adopted in the 11th hour, after innumerable failed attempts. With an analytical point of departure in Krehbiel’s theory of pivotal politics, this paper seeks to identify pivotal legislators in the case of the tax credit extensions and discusses how changes in the composition of pivotal legislators in the 111th Congress (2009–2010) may impact the prospects of moving climate legislation more generally. The analysis indicates that a majority of the legislative pivots in the case of tax credit extensions were Republican senators representing coal-producing states. In the case of climate change, however, the regional dimension is likely to be more significant for Democratic voting behaviour. Thus, the opportunity space for climate legislation in the 111th Congress remains narrow even with a reinforced Democratic majority in Congress.