Swedish CO2-emissions 1900–2010: an exploratory note

This paper projects Swedish CO2-emissions during the period 2000–2010 based on data covering 1900–1999. Swedish climate policy is currently based on the assumption that carbon emissions will increase, ceteris paribus, by 5–15% relative to the 1990 level. This forecast has motivated a number of policy measures, including carbon taxes, subsidies and an “information package”. We find, however, that CO2-emissions may well be lower in the future. This outcome is broadly consistent with the literature on the Environmental Kuznets Curve, which portrays the relationship between emissions and GDP. The key contribution of this paper is that our analysis is based on a long time series. Current literature is invariably based on “short” panel data sets, while we study a single country through several phases of development. Our analysis also sheds some light on the key importance played by nuclear power for carbon emission projections.