Energy supply planning in Iran by using fuzzy linear programming approach (regarding uncertainties of investment costs)

For many years, energy models have been used in developed or developing countries to satisfy different needs in energy planning. One of major problems against energy planning and consequently energy models is uncertainty, spread in different economic, political and legal dimensions of energy planning. Confronting uncertainty, energy planners have often used two well-known strategies. The first strategy is stochastic programming, in which energy system planners define different scenarios and apply an explicit probability of occurrence to each scenario. The second strategy is Minimax Regret strategy that minimizes regrets of different decisions made in energy planning. Although these strategies have been used extensively, they could not flexibly and effectively deal with the uncertainties caused by fuzziness. “Fuzzy Linear Programming (FLP)” is a strategy that can take fuzziness into account. This paper tries to demonstrate the method of application of FLP for optimization of supply energy system in Iran, as a case study. The used FLP model comprises fuzzy coefficients for investment costs. Following the mentioned purpose, it is realized that FLP is an easy and flexible approach that can be a serious competitor for other confronting uncertainties approaches, i.e. stochastic and Minimax Regret strategies.