Combined heat and power in the Swedish district heating sector—impact of green certificates and CO2 trading on new investments

Combined heat and power (CHP) has been identified by the EU administration as an important means of reducing CO2-emissions and increasing the energy efficiency. In Sweden, only about one third of the demand for district heat (DH) is supplied from CHP. This share could be significantly larger if the profitability of CHP generation increased. The objective of this study was to analyse the extent to which the profitability for investments in new CHP plants in the Swedish DH sector have changed thanks to the recently implemented trading schemes for green certificates (TGCs) and CO2 emissions (TEPs). The analysis was carried out using a simulation model of the Swedish DH sector in which the profitability of CHP investments for all DH systems, with and without the two trading schemes applied, is compared. In addition, a comparison was made of the changes in CHP generation, CO2 emissions, and operation costs if investments are made in the CHP plant shown to be most profitable in each system according to the model. The study shows that the profitability of investments in CHP plants increased significantly with the introductions of TGC and TEP schemes. If all DH utilities also undertook their most profitable CHP investments, the results indicate a major increase in power generation which, in turn, would reduce the CO2 emissions from the European power sector by up to 13 Mton/year, assuming that coal condensing power is displaced.