Evaluation of green-certificates policies using the MARKAL-MACRO-Italy model

This study evaluates the overall effects of the present Italian Renewable Energy Supply of Electricity (RES-E) obligation and compares the contribution of each expected RES-E to the economic equilibrium mix resulting from computable economic equilibrium scenarios. The impact of the policies has been evaluated by means of a model of the Italian energy–environment system built with the MARKAL/TIMES methodology, which has been developed by the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Project of the International Energy Agency (IEA/ETSAP). Since the development of RES-E helps energy security, climate mitigation and the distribution of energy production revenues across the country, this study evaluates also an alternative scenario assuming a progressive increase of the RES-E obligation. Both scenarios are then compared with the targets fixed for each RES by the Italian White Paper on renewable energy source. Eventually the effectiveness of the RES-E policies implemented through the green-certificate mechanism are compared with the obligation to improve the efficiency of end-use devices fed by electricity and natural gas. Contrary to green-certificates policies, White certificates obligations increase energy security and GDP at the same time, because in principle they force end users to more rational choices.