Today or not today: Deregulating the Russian gas sector

Although Russia is the worldʹs biggest producer of natural gas, its ability to maintain timely and reliable supply to meet the growing global demand has come under question in recent months. The gas war with Ukraine notwithstanding, concern has been raised by a number of observers that underinvestment in the gas sector will lead to a systemic failure of the state monopolist OAO Gazprom to increase or even maintain current levels of production. Yet with a quarter of European gas coming from Russia, and with increasing presence of Gazprom in European downstream operations (such as Germany, Hungary, and other CIS states) as well as seemingly closer ties with Algeria, another major supplier of gas to Europe, there has been a strong reaction from Europeʹs policy-makers to decrease dependence on Russian gas.Deregulating and liberalising the gas sector would see the lifting of restrictions to foreign or independent investors wishing to gain access to Russian reserves, as well as the unhindered access to the pipeline infrastructure and export markets. It would also signal the unbundling of Gazprom and an end to the artificially low price of gas to the domestic consumer. This paper discusses whether deregulation is the optimal way to raise capital, attract investment and increase supply security for Russiaʹs Western neighbours. In doing so, the paper identifies the objectives of the EU as the importer whilst trying to align them with the objectives of the Russian Federation as the exporter, in the current political context.