New nuclear power generation in the UK: Cost benefit analysis

This paper provides an economic analysis of possible nuclear new build in the UK. It compares costs and benefits of nuclear new build against conventional gas-fired generation and low carbon technologies (CCS, wind, etc.). A range of scenarios are considered to allow for uncertainty as regards nuclear and other technology costs, gas prices and carbon prices. In the base case, the analysis suggests that there is a small cost penalty for new nuclear generation relative to conventional gas-fired generation, but that this is offset by environmental and security of supply benefits. More generally nuclear new build has a positive net benefit for a range of plausible nuclear costs, gas prices and carbon prices. This supports the UK policy of developing an enabling framework for nuclear new build in a market-based context. To the extent that assumptions in the analysis are not borne out in reality (e.g. as regards nuclear cost), this is a no regrets policy, given that the market would not invest in nuclear if it is prohibitively costly.