The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios—Part II: Scenarios for a 60% CO2 reduction in the UK

This paper describes the Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios, the first to take account of CO2 emissions from the whole of the UKʹs energy system, including emissions from international shipping and aviation. It builds on Part I, which outlined the backcasting methodology developed to generate the scenarios. The five scenarios produced through this process articulate alternative vision of a substantially decarbonised society in 2050, ranging from a halving of energy consumption from current levels to a near doubling. This work demonstrates that a 60% reduction in the UKʹs CO2 emissions is achievable, even when all CO2 sources are taken into account. The impacts and consequences of the scenarios were assessed by means of a multi-criteria framework which cautions us that the high energy demand scenarios will have a large impact on broader sustainability criteria.