Control-based life-cycle forecasting

In this paper, the authors lay out a process for effective monitoring and control of a life cycle forecast. This algorithm and forecasting technique is based on the idea that a forecast should not be changed unless it is shown to be an invalid forecast using standard statistical means. The approach is a control-based approach that serves to greatly reduce the amount of forecasting that must be performed and it does not harm the accuracy of the overall forecast. This work builds on earlier work by Foote (see IIE Trans., vol.27, p. 210-216, 1995) in the area of aircraft spare parts. At Compaq Computer Corporation, the amount of forecasting was cut by over 50% where this algorithm was implemented.