Leapfrog to the future: Energy scenarios and strategies for Suriname to 2050

This paper formulates energy strategies for Suriname. A conceptual model, identifying relationships in the energy sector, is conceived. One of the striking characteristics is that various relationships inhibit significant uncertainty; our contemporary age is characterized by more complex becoming relations, decreasing predictability and increasing chaos. Simple extrapolation of past events is therefore futile, since deviations from anticipated outcomes have significant impacts. The Scenario Planning methodology has been used to deal with this uncertainty. The most uncertain high-impact driving forces that shape the future of the energy sector in Suriname have been identified and are used to create energy scenarios to 2050. Next, robust strategies have been formulated which primarily focus on institutionalization, renewable resources, cost-reflecting tariffs, decentralization of energy supply, and energy efficiency and savings. Leading indicators have been identified that identify towards which scenario the present develops, and hence which set of strategies need to be applied.